The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is projecting Canadian crude oil production will increase by 1.27 million barrels per day to 5.86 million by 2035.
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The association’s latest forecast predicts total production in Western Canada will reach 5.76 million barrels per day in 2035 compared with 4.36 million in 2018.
That’s a growth rate of less than 1.5 per cent per year, said CAPP president Tim McMillan as he outlined the report’s findings at the Global Petroluem Show in Calgary on Thursday.
“Consistent with last year, we have a much flatter production growth scenario than we did just a few years ago in 2014,” he said.
Conventional oil is basically flat, with most of the production increase accounted for by the oilsands, particularly in situ, McMillan said.
Oilsands production is forecast to grow from 2.91 million barrels per day this year to 4.25 million barrels per day by 2035.
Production in Eastern Canada is forecast to peak at 354,000 barrels per day in 2026 before falling to about 91,000 barrels per day in 2035.
The report noted that capital spending in the oilsands this year is set to fall for a fifth consecutive year to roughly $12 billion.
Overall, capital investment across Canada’s oil and natural gas industry is forecast to fall to $37 billion in 2019.
The report said pipeline constraints, a lack of market diversity and inefficient regulations are largely responsible for holding back the oil sector.
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“We think that the challenges on the pipeline side have been one of the big problems in retaining investment,” McMillan said.
“We hope for good news next week on Trans Mountain, that it will start construction very quickly.”